Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Dear Shale Protestor,

I just returned from speaking at the inaugural event of the Columbia University Energy Club.  The students were great!  About 80 attended a 2-hour panel discussion focused on the Marcellus, petroleum, "clean" energy and energy self-sufficiency. 

Ironically, the day before, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published their annual World Energy Outlook 2012 predicting that the United States will become energy self-sufficient by 2035.  

While the kids in the audience didn't appreciate the significance, the old timers on the panel were stunned.  Many of us remembered November 1973 when Richard Nixon announced the goal of energy independence for the United States.  He challenged the country to do it in 10 years. 

Nixon built on Kennedy's challenge to put a man on the moon never imagining which was the bigger gauntlet.  Even with the discovery and development of the giant Alaskan oil fields and offshore Gulf of Mexico, energy independence remained elusive.

Well 62 years later, the U.S. just might do it. It turns out that the keys to the kingdom are a combination of developing unconventional resources (55%) and energy efficiency (45%). 

To be sure, there are a lot of things that have to go right.  Energy independence could still slip away.  Prices have to cooperate, neither too high nor too low, technology must improve and the promise of shale has to be fulfilled.  Are the hydrocarbons really there in commercial quantities?  We won't really know until we drill the wells.  Plenty to screw up in the next 23 years.

Yet, to think that there really could be a viable path to energy independence is worthy of a full-stop pause.  Do you think that the United States oil and gas industry could win the next Nobel Peace Prize?

Till Next Time,

Energy Mom
New York City

p.s. - Assuming that the Nobel Committee does not award the Peace Prize to industry, I am going to frame the front page of the Wall Street JournalU.S. Redraws World Oil Map, November 13, 2012.
It's close enough.

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